U.S. Reopening Monitor Update - August 17, 2020
The Stone Investment Partners’ U.S. Reopening Monitor was designed to provide a dashboard of high frequency and non-traditional data to gauge the pace and strength of U.S. economic activity as business restarts following the COVID-19 lockdown. The dashboard consists of three main indicator groups: healthcare, economic and financial market. This guide will provide the details behind each of the indicators within the groups. Initial and continuing jobless claims are releases with a one- and two-week lag respectively. Data marked with an asterisk (*) denotes that the indicator was either not yet available or not published by the underlying source that week. The data marked in green indicates that the measurement improved on a week-over-week basis, while red reflects week-over-week deterioration.
Another way to visualize the data is to look at the number of factors in the monitor improving or deteriorating on a week-over-week basis.
Readings for our U.S. Reopening Monitor took a step back last week, but initial readings on new COVID-19 cases have now fallen on a week-over-week (W/W) basis for four weeks in a row with the uptick in infections that began in June likely peaking. Improvement is showing up in the underlying high frequency economic data for public transit usage and retail sales. We will be looking for improved economic momentum over the coming weeks with the August Markit PMI data for manufacturing and services expected to improve this week.
The Guide to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.
The PDF version of the weekly update to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.