U.S. Reopening Monitor Update - November 9, 2020
The Stone Investment Partners’ U.S. Reopening Monitor was designed to provide a dashboard of high frequency and non-traditional data to gauge the pace and strength of U.S. economic activity as business restarts following the COVID-19 lockdown. The dashboard consists of three main indicator groups: healthcare, economic and financial market. This guide will provide the details behind each of the indicators within the groups.
Readings for our U.S. Reopening Monitor rebounded somewhat but the telltale signs of new COVID cases again rising on a week-over-week (W/W) basis can be seen weighing on activity. Underlying high frequency economic data was mixed with consumer sentiment and retail sales improving while the public transit, airline travel and mobility measures took a step back. The Atlanta and New York Fed’s estimate of 4Q GDP growth is currently 3.5% and 2.9%, respectively.
A way to visualize the data is to look at the number of factors in the monitor improving or deteriorating on a week-over-week basis.
Initial and continuing jobless claims are releases with a one- and two-week lag respectively. Data marked with an asterisk (*) denotes that the indicator was either not yet available or not published by the underlying source that week. The data marked in green indicates that the measurement improved on a week-over-week basis, while red reflects week-over-week deterioration.
The Dallas Fed's Mobility and Engagement National Index (MEI) is part our toolkit to monitor activity away from home in the U.S. The MEI uses cell phone data to gauge how much activity has been impacted by COVID with normal being 0 and the April average weekly low at -100. The MEI consists of seven different underlying measures including the percentage of mobile devices leaving home along with the distance and duration of the trip and the average time spent at home.
Though this monitor focuses on the U.S., it is worth highlighting the spike in COVID infections and additional restrictions on activity in other parts of the world.
Eurozone COVID cases stopped their acceleration on a W/W basis after seventeen straight weeks but remain at a high level. Restrictions across much of Europe have impacted dining with Germany and the U.K. seeing -95% and -89% declines from baseline, respectively. Germany, Italy and Spain hit an all-time high weekly infection pace.
The increase in cases and restrictions are weighing on dining in Germany.
The U.K. pace of infections decreased but remained high.
The increase in cases and restrictions are weighing on dining in the U.K.
Japan COVID cases rose again but remain below highs.
Apple publishes international mobility trends that we'll be monitoring.
The Guide to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.
The PDF version of the weekly update to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.