• Bill Stone

U.S. Reopening Monitor Update - October 26, 2020

The Stone Investment Partners’ U.S. Reopening Monitor was designed to provide a dashboard of high frequency and non-traditional data to gauge the pace and strength of U.S. economic activity as business restarts following the COVID-19 lockdown. The dashboard consists of three main indicator groups: healthcare, economic and financial market. This guide will provide the details behind each of the indicators within the groups.

Readings for our U.S. Reopening Monitor remained net positive but new COVID-19 cases and deaths rose on a week-over-week (W/W) basis. Underlying high frequency economic data was mixed with public transit, retail sales and dining improving while the consumer sentiment and airline travel measures took a step back. The Atlanta and New York Fed’s estimate of 3Q GDP growth are 35.3% and 13.8%, respectively.

A way to visualize the data is to look at the number of factors in the monitor improving or deteriorating on a week-over-week basis.

Initial and continuing jobless claims are releases with a one- and two-week lag respectively. Data marked with an asterisk (*) denotes that the indicator was either not yet available or not published by the underlying source that week. The data marked in green indicates that the measurement improved on a week-over-week basis, while red reflects week-over-week deterioration.

Though this monitor focuses on the U.S., it is worth highlighting the spike in COVID infections in other parts of the world.

Confirmed COVID cases have risen on a W/W basis for sixteen straight weeks in the Eurozone. More restrictions have been enacted which has weighed heavily on services including dining and given rise to fears of a double-dip recession. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the U.K. hit an all-time high weekly infection pace.

The increase in cases is weighing on dining in Germany.

The U.K. pace of infections increased for the eighth week despite tighter curbs.

The increase in cases and restrictions are weighing on dining in the U.K.

Japan posted a decline in the pace of weekly infections.

The Guide to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.

The PDF version of the weekly update to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.

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