U.S. Reopening Monitor Update - October 5, 2020
The Stone Investment Partners’ U.S. Reopening Monitor was designed to provide a dashboard of high frequency and non-traditional data to gauge the pace and strength of U.S. economic activity as business restarts following the COVID-19 lockdown. The dashboard consists of three main indicator groups: healthcare, economic and financial market. This guide will provide the details behind each of the indicators within the groups. Initial and continuing jobless claims are releases with a one- and two-week lag respectively. Data marked with an asterisk (*) denotes that the indicator was either not yet available or not published by the underlying source that week. The data marked in green indicates that the measurement improved on a week-over-week basis, while red reflects week-over-week deterioration.
Readings for our U.S. Reopening Monitor improved last week and readings on new COVID-19 cases fell on a week-over-week (W/W) basis after two weeks of increases. Improvement continues in the underlying high frequency economic data for transit, retail sales and dining but consumer sentiment and airline travel took a step back. The Atlanta and New York Fed’s estimate of 3Q GDP growth are 34.6% and 14.0%, respectively.
Another way to visualize the data is to look at the number of factors in the monitor improving or deteriorating on a week-over-week basis.
Though this monitor focuses on the U.S., it is worth highlighting the spike in COVID infections in other parts of the world.
Confirmed COVID cases have risen on a W/W basis for thirteen straight weeks in the Eurozone and could weigh on the outlook, but the pace has slowed and might indicate that the peak could be near. Infection counts rose in France and Spain but declined off the record pace of the previous week.
The U.K. pace of infections increased for the fifth week in a row.
Streak of seven straight W/W declines in infections in Japan was broken as they registered an uptick.
The Guide to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.
The PDF version of the weekly update to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.