U.S. Reopening Monitor Update - September 14, 2020
The Stone Investment Partners’ U.S. Reopening Monitor was designed to provide a dashboard of high frequency and non-traditional data to gauge the pace and strength of U.S. economic activity as business restarts following the COVID-19 lockdown. The dashboard consists of three main indicator groups: healthcare, economic and financial market. This guide will provide the details behind each of the indicators within the groups. Initial and continuing jobless claims are releases with a one- and two-week lag respectively. Data marked with an asterisk (*) denotes that the indicator was either not yet available or not published by the underlying source that week. The data marked in green indicates that the measurement improved on a week-over-week basis, while red reflects week-over-week deterioration.
Another way to visualize the data is to look at the number of factors in the monitor improving or deteriorating on a week-over-week basis.
Readings for our U.S. Reopening Monitor moderated last week but initial readings on new COVID-19 cases have now fallen on a week-over-week (W/W) basis for eight weeks in a row. Improvement continues in the underlying high frequency economic data for transit and consumer sentiment, but some weakness is seen in the travel and market-based indicators. The dining component was distorted by the impact of the Labor Day holiday. The Atlanta and New York Fed’s estimate of 3Q GDP growth are 30.8% and 15.6%, respectively.
Though this monitor focuses on the U.S., it is worth highlighting the spike in COVID infections in other parts of the world.
Confirmed COVID cases have risen on a W/W basis for ten straight weeks in the Eurozone and could weigh on the outlook. Infection growth picked up again in Germany and France in particular, while Spain is struggling with their highest weekly infection count ever.
The U.K. pace of infections increased for the second week in a row after a couple W/W improvements.
Japan has had five straight weeks of W/W declines in infections after a streak of increases.
The Guide to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.
The PDF version of the weekly update to the U.S. Reopening Monitor is linked here.